Opinion

Big 'if'

TBO.com
Published: January 10, 2013

The collapse of the Florida real estate and housing market, on top of the near meltdown of the country's financial system because of the housing debt crisis, has been hard on Sunshine State government, from Tallahassee to counties, and school districts to city halls. The loss of revenue from taxes and fees has forced government at all levels to make spending decisions that often had painful impact on people who depend on public spending.

Initial projections from the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research might be some good news. State economists see Florida having some $437 million more in revenue in its 2014 fiscal year, which begins July 1, than the total spending commitments in its next budget. That means state lawmakers won't have to consider raising more tax revenue — something the Republican-controlled Legislature has, for the most part, declined to consider — or again cut spending.

There is, however, a big "if" in that rosy scenario. Actually, there might be two, if the "fiscal cliff" deal Congress reached this week falls apart. The real threat at the moment is the Florida Supreme Court upholding a lower court ruling invalidating a 2011 law that requires state employees to pay 3 percent of their pension costs. That could cost $2 billion and swallow up the $437 million surplus revenue projection.

Trying to guess how judges will rule is a risky business — as the U.S. Supreme Court's ObamaCare ruling proved — so we'll pass. We just hope Florida has some good economic news for a change.